In February, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in the manufacturing sector's prosperity.

From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, which was higher than the critical point; the PMIs of medium-sized and small enterprises were 47.5% and 44.8% respectively, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, both lower than the critical point.

From the perspective of sub-indices, among the 5 sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new orders index, raw material inventory index, employee index, and supplier delivery time index were all lower than the critical point.

The production index was 49.6%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing production activities slowed down somewhat.

The new orders index was 48.6%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the prosperity of manufacturing market demand.

The raw material inventory index was 47.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the decline in the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry narrowed slightly.

The employee index was 48.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in the employment prosperity of manufacturing enterprises.

The supplier delivery time index was 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry was slower than that of the previous month.

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index compiled through the statistical aggregation of monthly survey results from corporate purchasing managers. It covers various links such as enterprise procurement, production, and circulation, including the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. It is one of the internationally commonly used leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends and has a strong predictive and early warning role. The Composite PMI Output Index is a comprehensive index in the PMI indicator system that reflects the output changes of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) in the current period. When the PMI is above 50%, it indicates that the economy as a whole has expanded compared with the previous month; when it is below 50%, it indicates that the economy as a whole has contracted compared with the previous month.

2. Scope of the Survey

It involves 31 major manufacturing industries and 3,200 survey samples, as well as 43 major non-manufacturing industries and 4,300 survey samples, in accordance with the "National Economic Industry Classification" (GB/T 4754-2017).

3. Survey Method

The purchasing managers' survey adopts the PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, with major manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries as layers. The sample size of each industry is allocated according to the proportion of its added value in the total added value of all manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries. Samples within each layer are selected with probabilities proportional to the main business income of the enterprises.

This survey is specifically organized and implemented by the survey teams directly under the National Bureau of Statistics, using the national statistical online direct reporting system to conduct monthly questionnaires among corporate purchasing managers.

4. Calculation Method

(1) Calculation method of sub-indices. The manufacturing purchasing managers' survey indicator system includes 13 sub-indices: production, new orders, new export orders, backlog orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, imports, purchase prices of major raw materials, ex-factory prices, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, and expectations for production and operation activities. The non-manufacturing purchasing managers' survey indicator system includes 10 sub-indices: business activities, new orders, new export orders, backlog orders, inventory, input prices, sales prices, employees, supplier delivery time, and expectations for business activities. The sub-indices are calculated using the diffusion index method, that is, the percentage of enterprises with positive responses plus half of the percentage of enterprises with unchanged responses. Since there is no composite index for non-manufacturing industries, the business activity index is usually used internationally to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

(2) Calculation method of the manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting 5 diffusion indices (sub-indices). The 5 sub-indices and their weights are determined based on their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, they include: new orders index with a weight of 30%; production index with a weight of 25%; employees index with a weight of 20%; supplier delivery time index with a weight of 15%; and raw material inventory index with a weight of 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is a reverse index, which is reversely calculated when synthesizing the manufacturing PMI.

(3) Calculation method of the Composite PMI Output Index. The Composite PMI Output Index is calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, with the weights being the proportions of manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP respectively.