Changes in the composite index show that the momentum of the global manufacturing recovery continued to edge down in December. The index remained stable above 49%, maintaining a weak recovery pattern; however, the strength of the recovery has not yet formed effective support and needs further consolidation and enhancement. By region, manufacturing in Asia expanded at an accelerated pace, continuing to demonstrate its pivotal supporting role in the global economy; the recovery momentum of African manufacturing picked up to some extent; European manufacturing maintained a weak recovery trend with a slight slowdown in the pace of recovery; manufacturing in the Americas continued its weak decline.

In terms of the full-year performance of 2025, the overall recovery momentum of the global manufacturing sector was slightly better than that of 2024, but the average index level still remained below 50%. This indicates that under the multiple shocks such as the impact of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, the global economic recovery remains stable but weak, and the recovery momentum still needs to be strengthened. Looking at the quarterly trends, the global manufacturing recovery was relatively steady in the first quarter of 2024, with an average PMI of 49.9%; affected by tariff policies, the recovery momentum weakened in the second quarter, with an average PMI of 49.3%; it rebounded in the third and fourth quarters, with an average PMI of 49.6% for both quarters. By region, Asia's manufacturing sector maintained the strongest recovery momentum: although its average index edged down from 2024, it still stayed above 50%, serving as an important pillar for the stable recovery of the global economy. Africa's manufacturing recovery momentum strengthened, with its average index rising above 50%. The decline in European manufacturing narrowed, yet the recovery remained relatively weak with an average index below 49%; the recovery momentum of American manufacturing was flat compared with 2024, continuing on a weak recovery track with an average index still below 49%.

Looking ahead to 2026, the global economy may still face uncertainties and maintain a weak recovery trend. Major international economic institutions currently generally predict that the global economic growth rate will slow down in 2026. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released its latest Economic Outlook report, forecasting that the global economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, consistent with its projections in September 2025. In 2026, ongoing international geopolitical conflicts will remain the core uncertain factor disturbing the global economic recovery. The continuous spread of trade protectionism will further curb the vitality of international trade, pushing up uncertainties in the global trade trend. The latest forecast from the World Trade Organization (WTO) shows that the expected growth rate of global merchandise trade in 2026 has been sharply revised down to 0.5%, and the growth rate of global service exports will drop to 4.4%. At the same time, many countries around the world are still mired in the predicament of high debt and high deficits, which will continue to disrupt the stability of the global governance structure.

Nevertheless, it is important to note that the overall global inflation level is on a downward trend, and inflationary pressures are expected to ease further in 2026, leaving more room for policy adjustments in various countries. The investment boom in the field of artificial intelligence is accelerating the formation of new growth drivers, which not only provides incremental support for global economic growth, but also drives the iterative upgrading of the global industrial sector and the optimization of economic structures, helping to hedge against downside risks and stabilize the fundamentals of the global economic recovery. Faced with a complex environment, all countries in the world should accelerate strategic adjustments, focus on structural reforms domestically, deepen regional coordination internationally, seek a dynamic balance between open cooperation and economic security, promote the standardized application of AI technology and the universalization of green transformation, and build an inclusive and interconnected global economic governance system. Only in this way can we break through growth bottlenecks and achieve a sustainable recovery.

Manufacturing in the Americas: Further Weakening with a Consecutive PMI Decline

In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI for the Americas stood at 47.9%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to below 48%. It has declined month-on-month for three consecutive months and remained below 50% for ten consecutive months, indicating a further weakening of the manufacturing sector in the Americas. Data from major countries shows that in December, the manufacturing PMIs of the United States, Brazil and Mexico all declined to varying degrees and remained below 48%; Canada's manufacturing PMI rose slightly month-on-month but still stayed below 49%; Colombia's manufacturing PMI declined month-on-month but remained above 50%.

The ISM report shows that in December 2025, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 47.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. It has declined month-on-month for five consecutive months and remained below 50% for ten consecutive months, hitting a new low in 2025, which indicates an accelerated downward trend in the overall U.S. manufacturing sector. The sub-indices show that the new orders index rose but still remained below 48%, with the decline on the demand side narrowing slightly but the demand still operating weakly; the production index declined to 51%, remaining in the expansion range, with corporate production maintaining expansion at a slightly slower pace; the employment index rose but still stayed below 45%, with the decline narrowing slightly but remaining weak; the prices paid index was flat month-on-month and stayed at a high level above 58%, as the transmission pressure of tariff policy impacts on the cost side persists. In 2025, the average U.S. manufacturing PMI was 48.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from 2024, indicating a slight improvement in the recovery momentum of the U.S. manufacturing sector in 2025 compared with 2024. However, the average level still remained below 49%, meaning the recovery momentum of the U.S. manufacturing sector is still relatively weak.

Looking ahead to 2026, Bank of America Global Research forecasts that the U.S. economic growth rate will remain in the mid-2% range by the end of 2026. It is worth alerting that the accumulation of downside risks still needs to be focused on: multiple adverse factors such as the impact of U.S. government shutdowns, a weak job market, and the continuous rise in commodity prices driven by tariff policies continue to restrict U.S. economic growth. U.S. consumer confidence has further declined recently: the Consumer Confidence Index fell from a revised 92.9 in November to 89.1 in December 2025, declining for the fifth consecutive month and hitting the lowest level since April 2025, indicating a weaker household expectation for the economic outlook. On inflation, the core U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to a high of 2.9% in the third quarter, with inflationary pressures not yet fully dissipated. Coupled with the slowdown in the labor market, the complexity of the Federal Reserve's future decisions has increased. A rebound in inflation may force the interest rate cut process to be delayed or reversed, which will have a chain effect on the overall pace of economic recovery.

Manufacturing in Africa: Rebound with PMI Rising Above 50%

In December 2025, the African manufacturing PMI reached 50.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising above 50% again. Among major countries, the manufacturing PMIs of Kenya and Nigeria declined month-on-month but still remained at a relatively high level above 53%; Egypt's manufacturing PMI declined month-on-month but still stayed above 50%.

A comprehensive analysis of data changes shows that the recovery momentum of African manufacturing has picked up, with the index rising back to the expansion range, indicating a stronger foundation for Africa's economic recovery. The average African manufacturing PMI in 2025 was higher than that in 2024 and rose to the expansion range above 50%, meaning the recovery momentum of African manufacturing strengthened in 2025, operating stably with a positive trend overall.

Looking ahead to 2026, Africa's economy still has a solid foundation for a positive recovery. The latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that Africa is poised for takeoff and will have the largest number of high-growth economies in the world in 2026, with a growth rate of at least 6%. With the continuous deepening of the integration of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the steady progress of cross-border infrastructure projects, and the dividends from Belt and Road cooperation, regional economic cycles will be further smoothed, injecting impetus into industrial transformation. However, it is worth noting that debt pressure in African countries remains prominent, and the high cost of debt repayment will seriously squeeze development funds. At the same time, the persistent problem of power shortage in Africa restricts industrial development. In addition, climate shocks, local political instability and other factors will bring potential disturbances to Africa's economic recovery.

Manufacturing in Europe: Stable but Weakening with a Slight PMI Decline

In December 2025, the European manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining at or above 49% for six consecutive months. Among major countries, the manufacturing PMIs of the UK, France and Greece rose month-on-month and stayed in the expansion range above 50%; the manufacturing PMIs of Germany and Italy declined to varying degrees and both fell to below 48%.

A comprehensive analysis of data changes shows that compared with the previous month, the overall European manufacturing sector still maintained a weak recovery trend with a slight slowdown in the recovery pace. Meanwhile, although the average European manufacturing PMI in 2025 rose from 2024, it still remained in the weak prosperity range below 49%. Europe's economy faces many uncertainties both internally and externally, which may continue to restrain its recovery pace. On the one hand, the ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the uncertainties brought by U.S.-Europe tariff policies continue to bring many disturbances to the external environment of Europe's economic recovery. On the other hand, Europe is also facing many internal difficulties: the economic outlook of Germany, the locomotive of the European economy, faces great uncertainties. The Ifo Institute for Economic Research revised down Germany's 2026 economic growth forecast to 0.8% in December 2025, 0.5 percentage points lower than the autumn forecast. France also continues to face problems such as rising debt, high deficits and economic stagnation. The IMF predicts that France's debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from about 116% in 2025 to nearly 130% in 2030. To address multiple challenges, the European Central Bank decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting in December 2025. In the same period, the euro area CPI stabilized at a reasonable range of 2.1%, providing solid data support for the stability of interest rate policy.

Looking ahead to 2026, Europe's economy will continue to seek a balance between resilience and pressure. Factors such as Germany's trillion-euro infrastructure and defense investment plan and Bulgaria's accession to the euro area are expected to inject growth momentum into the European economy. However, risks such as the potential escalation of U.S.-Europe trade frictions, increasing fiscal and debt pressure, fluctuations in energy prices and lagging structural reforms will continue to cause disturbances. If Europe can deepen the integration of the single market, advance regulatory reforms and properly manage trade differences, its economy is expected to consolidate the moderate recovery trend and gradually enhance the sustainability and endogenous driving force of growth.

Manufacturing in Asia: Accelerated Expansion with a PMI Rise

In December 2025, the Asian manufacturing PMI reached 51.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above 50% for eight consecutive months. Among major countries and regions, China's manufacturing PMI rose month-on-month and stayed above 50%; India's manufacturing PMI declined month-on-month to 55%; among ASEAN countries, Thailand's manufacturing PMI was above 55%, and those of Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Myanmar all remained above 50%; the manufacturing PMIs of Japan and South Korea both rose month-on-month, with Japan at the 50% threshold and South Korea slightly above 50%.

A comprehensive analysis of data changes shows that Asia's manufacturing sector continued to expand at an accelerated pace, continuing to demonstrate its pivotal supporting role in the global economy and injecting sustained and stable development impetus into the global economic recovery. In 2025, Asia's manufacturing sector maintained a stable and sound expansion trend throughout the year: although the average annual manufacturing PMI edged down from 2024, it still remained above 50%. Looking ahead to 2026, Asia's economy will continue to release the driving force of high-quality development and growth vitality, and remain the core engine of the global economic recovery. With the continuous release of dividends from the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the integration of regional industrial chains and the level of trade facilitation will be further upgraded. At the same time, China remains a stabilizer and ballast for the stable operation of Asia's economy and even the global economy. It is expected that in 2026, under the joint efforts of China's proactive fiscal policy and prudent and flexible monetary policy, the positive momentum of economic recovery will be further consolidated. Recently, both the IMF and the World Bank have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth rate in 2025. Among them, the IMF predicts that China's economy will grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, up by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively from its October forecasts. The World Bank raised its 2025 China economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points in its latest China Economic Update.